Climate change vulnerability

Climate change vulnerability is a concept that describes how strongly people or ecosystems are likely to be affected by climate change. Its formal definition is the "propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected" by climate change. It can apply to humans and also to natural systems (or ecosystems).^[1]: 12 Issues around the capacity to cope and adapt are also part of this concept.^[1]: 5 Vulnerability is a component of climate risk. It differs within communities and also across societies, regions, and countries. It can increase or decrease over time.^[1]: 12 Vulnerability is generally a bigger problem for people in low-income countries than for those in high-income countries.^[2]

Higher levels of vulnerability are found in areas with poverty, poor governance and conflict. Also, some livelihoods are more sensitive to the effects of climate change than others. Smallholder farmers, pastoralists, and fishing communities are livelihoods that may be especially vulnerable.^[1]: 12 Further drivers for vulnerability are unsustainable land and ocean use, inequity, marginalization, and historical and ongoing patterns of inequity and poor governance.^[1]: 12

There are many different notions of what it means to be vulnerable. An important distinction is between biophysical and social vulnerability. Biophysical vulnerability is about the effects of climate hazards such as heat waves or tropical cyclones. Social vulnerability, on the other hand, is about the underlying political, institutional, economic and social factors within societies. These factors matter for how and why people are affected, and they put some people and places more at risk than others. People who are more vulnerable include for example people with low incomes, indigenous peoples, women, children, the elderly.

Tools for vulnerability assessment vary depending on the sector, the scale and the entity or system which is thought to vulnerable. For example, the Vulnerability Sourcebook is a guide for practical and scientific knowledge on vulnerability assessment.^[3] Climate vulnerability mapping helps to understand which areas are the most vulnerable. Mapping can also help to communicate climate vulnerability to stakeholders.^[2] It is useful to carry out vulnerability assessments in advance of preparing local climate adaptation plans or risk management plans.^[4] Global vulnerability assessments use spatial mapping with aggregated data for the regional or national level.^{[5]: 1195–1199}