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Futures studies, futures research, futurism research, futurism, or futurology is the systematic, interdisciplinary and holistic study of social/technological advancement, and other environmental trends; often for the purpose of exploring how people will live and work in the future. Predictive techniques, such as forecasting, can be applied, but contemporary futures studies scholars emphasize the importance of systematically exploring alternatives.[1][2][3] In general, it can be considered as a branch of the social sciences and an extension to the field of history. Futures studies (abbreviated to "'futures" by most of the field's practitioners) seeks to understand what is likely to continue and what could plausibly change. Part of the discipline thus seeks a systematic and pattern-based understanding of past and present, and to explore the possibility of future events and trends.[4]
Unlike the physical sciences where a narrower, more specified system is studied, futures studies concerns a much bigger and more complex world system. The methodology and knowledge are less proven than in natural science and social sciences like sociology and economics. There used to be a debate as to whether this discipline was an art or science, and it was sometimes described as pseudoscience;[5][6] Nevertheless, the study of the future as an academic discipline gradually gained ground, and parallel to this development, corporations and governments began employing people trained in this field. This resulted in, for example, the Association of Professional Futurists being formed in 2002,[7] developing a Foresight Competency Model in 2017,[8] and it is now possible to study it academically, for example at the FU Berlin in their master's course.[9] To encourage inclusive and cross-disciplinary discussions about futures studies, UNESCO declared December 2 as World Futures Day.[10]
- ^ James Joseph O'Toole (2017). "Futurology | social science". Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
- ^ "Futurology | Definition of Futurology by Lexico". Lexico Dictionaries | English. Archived from the original on March 25, 2020. Retrieved 11 May 2020.
- ^ Voros, Joseph (2017-02-24). "The Futures Cone, use and history". The Voroscope. Retrieved 2020-07-13.
- ^ "Futurology". Wordnet Search 3.1. Princeton University. Retrieved 16 March 2013.
- ^ Futurology-Oxford Dictionary. 2008.
Mainly a pseudo-science, given the complexities of social, political, economic, technological, and natural factors.
- ^ William, F. Williams (2013-12-02). Encyclopedia of Pseudoscience: From Alien Abductions to Zone Therapy. Routledge. pp. 122–123. ISBN 9781135955229.
Many scientists rejected the notion of futures studies being considered a science, mainly because of the use of the previous unscholarly word for it, 'futurology'.
- ^ Hines, Andy (2004). "The History and Development of the Association of Professional Futurists". The Knowledge Base of Futures Studies.
- ^ Hines, Andy; Gary, Jay; Daheim, Cornelia; van der Laan, Luke (2017). "Building foresight capacity: Toward a Foresight Competency Model" (PDF). World Futures Review. 9 (3): 123–141. doi:10.1177/1946756717715637. S2CID 115261787. Archived from the original (PDF) on 2021-11-08. Retrieved 2021-05-29.
- ^ "Zukunftsforschung". www.ewi-psy.fu-berlin.de (in German). 2 December 2013. Retrieved 30 October 2021.
- ^ "World Futures Day | UNESCO". www.unesco.org. Retrieved 2022-12-12.