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Superspreading event

9th floor layout of the Hotel Metropole in Hong Kong, showing where a superspreading event of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) occurred in 2003

A superspreading event (SSEV) is an event in which an infectious disease is spread much more than usual, while an unusually contagious organism infected with a disease is known as a superspreader. In the context of a human-borne illness, a superspreader is an individual who is more likely to infect others, compared with a typical infected person. Such superspreaders are of particular concern in epidemiology.

Some cases of superspreading conform to the 80/20 rule,[1] where approximately 20% of infected individuals are responsible for 80% of transmissions, although superspreading can still be said to occur when superspreaders account for a higher or lower percentage of transmissions.[2] In epidemics with such superspreader events, the majority of individuals infect relatively few secondary contacts.[citation needed] The degree to which superspreading contributes to an epidemic is often quantified by the t20 metric, which denotes the proportion of infections attributable to the most infectious 20% of the population.[3]

SSEVs are shaped by multiple factors including a decline in herd immunity, nosocomial infections, virulence, viral load, misdiagnosis, airflow dynamics, immune suppression, and co-infection with another pathogen.[4]

  1. ^ Galvani AP, May RM (November 2005). "Epidemiology: dimensions of superspreading". Nature. 438 (7066): 293–295. Bibcode:2005Natur.438..293G. doi:10.1038/438293a. PMC 7095140. PMID 16292292.
  2. ^ Lloyd-Smith JO, Schreiber SJ, Kopp PE, Getz WM (November 2005). "Superspreading and the effect of individual variation on disease emergence". Nature. 438 (7066): 355–359. Bibcode:2005Natur.438..355L. doi:10.1038/nature04153. PMC 7094981. PMID 16292310.
  3. ^ von Csefalvay C (January 2023). "Chapter 3: Host factors: Who gets sick and why". In von Csefalvay C (ed.). Computational Modeling of Infectious Disease. Academic Press. pp. 93–119. doi:10.1016/b978-0-32-395389-4.00012-8. ISBN 978-0-323-95389-4.
  4. ^ Stein RA (August 2011). "Super-spreaders in infectious diseases". International Journal of Infectious Diseases. 15 (8): e510–e513. doi:10.1016/j.ijid.2010.06.020. PMC 7110524. PMID 21737332. The minority of individuals who infect disproportionately more susceptible contacts, as compared to most individuals who infect few or no others, became known as super-spreaders, and their existence is deeply rooted in history: between 1900 and 1907, Typhoid Mary infected 51 individuals, three of whom died, even though she only had an asymptomatic infection.

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